Economic recessions stir uncertainty, impacting everything from household budgets to corporate bottom lines. But how exactly do US companies fare when the economy contracts? Understanding the historical relationship between recessions and corporate earnings can provide valuable insights for investors, business leaders, and anyone interested in the economy’s pulse. This article delves into the historical performance…
Welcome to the market outlook. The idea of this section is to give an overview of current market performance and trends. We will include bond yields, commodity trends, key economic calendar activities, and more. New Market Outlooks will be published biweekly. US Bond Market Yields As of the week ending November 15th, long-term U.S. Treasury…
Copper is an essential metal that has become a cornerstone of modern technology and infrastructure. Its perfect electrical and thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, and versatility make it invaluable across various industries. In this post, we’ll delve into the current supply and demand trends for copper, explore its applications and importance, examine historical inventory levels in…
As we navigate the economic landscape in late 2024, a key area of focus for investors is the U.S. Treasury bond market are long-term securities. With increasing concerns about the federal deficit and its implications on interest rates, this article discuss key points about the factors influencing bond rates and the potential strategies employed by…
Background: What to Expect When Rates Start Declining When the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, investors often scramble to position their portfolios optimally. This post examines the historical performance of three key assets during rate-cutting cycles: the S&P 500 (SPY), Utilities Sector (XLU), and Long-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT). Understanding these patterns can provide valuable…
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, the relationship between interest rates and sector performance is a crucial aspect for investors to consider. Today, we’ll explore how potential short-term yield cuts might influence the utility sector’s performance. Understanding Short-Term Yield Cuts Before diving into the specifics, let’s clarify what we mean by short-term yield cuts:…
The Federal Reserve’s influence on the yield curve is both powerful and complicated, with different parts of the curve responding differently to monetary policy actions. While the Fed has strong control over short-term rates, its influence diminishes across longer maturities, creating an intricate dynamic that shapes the entire yield curve. The Fed’s Direct Control: The…
The relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates tells a fascinating story about economic cycles, monetary policy, and market expectations. Over the past three decades, we’ve witnessed several distinct patterns that shed light on how these rates interact, particularly during periods of monetary easing and tightening.