Waymo: Potential Revenue Projections for 2025 and 2026
Continuing the series on Google Other bets, we will spend some time trying to find out the potential revenue for Waymo, a leading autonomous vehicle technology company, for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The analysis utilizes the latest available data on Waymo’s weekly ride numbers, estimates the average price per ride, and considers the company’s expansion plans to forecast revenue. The projections indicate substantial revenue growth for Waymo in both 2025 and 2026, driven by increasing ride volume, geographical expansion, and a competitive pricing strategy. However, these projections are subject to various assumptions regarding the pace of expansion, market adoption, and competitive dynamics within the autonomous vehicle industry.
Key Takeaway: Waymo is poised for significant revenue growth in the coming years, with the potential to become a major player in the ride-hailing market as its autonomous vehicle technology gains wider acceptance and its service footprint expands.

Table: Projected Revenue for Waymo in 2025 and 2026
Year | Estimated Average Weekly Rides | Estimated Average Price Per Ride | Operational Weeks | Projected Annual Revenue |
2025 (Moderate Scenario) | 400,000 | $18 | 52 | $374.4 Million |
2026 (Moderate Scenario) | 800,000 | $18 | 52 | $748.8 Million |
Note: These figures represent a moderate growth scenario. Conservative and aggressive scenarios are discussed in detail within the report.
Disclaimer: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editor prior to publication to ensure accuracy and clarity
2. Waymo’s Current Operational Footprint and Ride Volume:
2.1. Service Areas:
Waymo currently operates commercial robotaxi services in several key metropolitan areas, including Phoenix, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, and Los Angeles. These cities represent diverse geographical and regulatory landscapes, allowing Waymo to gather valuable operational data and refine its autonomous driving technology. The company has demonstrated a clear strategy for expansion, with plans to launch services in Austin, Atlanta, and Miami in the near future. Furthermore, Waymo is preparing for its first international venture with a planned service launch in Tokyo by 2026. This global outlook signifies Waymo’s ambition to become a leading provider of autonomous transportation solutions worldwide.
Recent developments include an expansion of Waymo’s service area within the San Francisco Bay Area. In March 2025, the company extended its coverage to include another 27 square miles, encompassing Mountain View, Los Altos, Palo Alto, and parts of Sunnyvale, California 4. This expansion brings Waymo’s driverless taxi service to the heart of Silicon Valley, where the company originated and is headquartered. While initially limited to residents with ZIP codes in the area, Waymo intends to gradually expand availability across the region 4. Beyond these confirmed expansions, Waymo has announced plans to test its autonomous vehicles in over 10 new cities in 2025. Las Vegas and San Diego have been identified as the first locations for these “road trips,” which will involve testing vehicles with a driver behind the wheel to gather data on local traffic patterns, road design, and weather conditions 6. This proactive approach to understanding diverse urban environments suggests a strategic intent to identify and potentially enter new markets in the future. The continuous expansion of Waymo’s operational footprint is a fundamental factor driving the anticipated growth in its ride volume.
2.2. Weekly Ride Numbers in 2024:
2024 marked a period of substantial growth in Waymo’s operational scale and user adoption. Throughout the year, the company witnessed a remarkable increase in the number of weekly rides conducted by its robotaxi fleet. Starting from approximately 10,000 weekly rides a year prior, Waymo’s Co-CEO reported that this figure had surged to 100,000 by August 2024 8. This tenfold increase in less than a year highlights the growing acceptance and reliance on autonomous vehicle technology within Waymo’s operational cities. By December 2024, the company reported conducting over 150,000 trips every week across its service areas in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles 9. This steady upward trend underscores the increasing demand for Waymo’s services.
The total number of fully autonomous rides provided by Waymo in 2024 exceeded 4 million 9. This significant milestone demonstrates the scale of Waymo’s operations and the level of trust riders place in its autonomous driving system. Further analysis suggests an even higher annualized run rate based on the later figures from the year. With 175,000 weekly rides reported in late 2024, the company was operating at an annualized rate of over 9 million rides 11. This rapid growth in ride volume throughout 2024 provides a strong foundation for projecting continued expansion and revenue generation in the coming years. The substantial increase in ridership indicates a positive market response to Waymo’s autonomous ride-hailing service.
2.3. Weekly Ride Numbers in Early 2025:
The strong growth trajectory established in 2024 has continued into the early months of 2025. As of March 2025, Waymo was providing over 200,000 paid rides per week 1. This milestone was confirmed by Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai in late February 2025, who announced that Waymo One was serving over 200,000 paid trips each week across Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco 12. This represents a remarkable twenty-fold increase in weekly paid rides over the past two years 12. The consistent growth in weekly ride numbers demonstrates the increasing momentum and market penetration of Waymo’s autonomous ride-hailing service. Reaching the 200,000 weekly ride mark signifies a significant level of operational maturity and user adoption, providing a solid baseline for future growth projections in 2025 and beyond.
3. Average Revenue Per Ride Estimation:
Estimating the average revenue per ride for Waymo requires analyzing pricing data from its operational cities, as fares can vary based on location, distance, time of day, and demand.
3.1. San Francisco Pricing:
In San Francisco, user reports suggest that the average cost for a 3-4 mile Waymo trip is typically around $20 14. Shorter rides, which might cost $8-9 on traditional ride-hailing platforms like Uber or Lyft before tipping, can range from $18-20 on Waymo 14. This indicates that Waymo’s base fares for shorter distances in San Francisco might be higher. A broader study comparing Waymo to human-driven ride-hails found that, on average, a Waymo robotaxi ride cost $9.50 more than an identical ride 15. However, this comparison did not include potential tips for human drivers, and factoring in a 20% gratuity still resulted in Waymo being approximately $3.87 more expensive 15.
A personal evaluation of 70 Waymo rides in San Francisco between September 2023 and May 2024 revealed an average fare of $11.84 per mile, excluding any surcharges 18. This per-mile cost fluctuated depending on the time of day, with peak hours like 1 PM, 3 PM, 4 PM, and 6 PM seeing prices exceeding $14 per mile 18. Direct comparisons between Waymo and Uber for specific routes in San Francisco offer further insights. For a trip from the S.F. Chronicle newsroom to Muni Rose Pak Chinatown Station, Waymo cost $15.87 compared to Uber’s $13.93. Similarly, a ride from Chinatown to Chase Center was priced at $18.70 by Waymo and $12.54 by Uber. Interestingly, for a longer trip from Chase Center to Coit Tower, Waymo’s fare was $23.57, while Uber’s was slightly higher at $25.92 19. These examples suggest that while Waymo might be more expensive for shorter trips, its pricing can be competitive or even lower for longer distances. An analytical formula derived from pricing data in San Francisco estimates the cost as $9.52 plus $1.66 per mile plus $0.30 per minute 20. This formula provides a more granular understanding of Waymo’s pricing structure in the city. Overall, Waymo’s pricing in San Francisco tends to be premium compared to traditional ride-hailing services, particularly for shorter distances, but can offer competitive rates for longer journeys.
3.2. Phoenix Pricing:
Pricing dynamics for Waymo rides in Phoenix appear to be more competitive with traditional ride-hailing services. A 20-minute ride from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport to a hotel in Uptown cost approximately $16 on Waymo, while the same ride booked via UberX was around $19 21. User experiences indicate that shorter rides within areas like Uptown and downtown Phoenix typically cost between $10 and $20 21. A specific comparison for a 15-minute, approximately 3-mile ride showed a Waymo charge of $7.60, which was similar to a Lyft fare of $7.20 for the same route 22.
While some users have reported instances where Waymo was cheaper than Uber, especially during busy times when Uber might implement surge pricing 23, others have found Waymo to be significantly more expensive in certain situations 24. For example, one user reported a Waymo fare of $13 compared to an Uber fare of $9 for a morning commute 24. A longer trip, a 25-minute, 10.21-mile journey from Cheesecake Factory to Walmart, cost $19.13 on Waymo One, equating to approximately $1.87 per mile or $0.77 per minute 25. An analytical formula for Phoenix pricing estimates the cost as $9.70 plus $0.52 per mile plus $0.20 per minute 20. This formula reveals a lower per-mile cost in Phoenix compared to San Francisco. The pricing data suggests that Waymo’s strategy in Phoenix aims for greater price parity with established ride-hailing services, with instances of both undercutting and exceeding competitor fares depending on various factors.
3.3. Los Angeles Pricing:
In Los Angeles, Waymo’s pricing seems to align closely with that of Uber and Lyft. Examples of ride costs include a 2.2-mile, 15-minute trip from Venice to Santa Monica for $10.49, and a 4.4-mile, 22-minute ride from the Wilshire/Normandie subway station to a coffee shop in Mid-Wilshire for $17.85 26. Notably, these rates were reported to be within a dollar or so of the pre-tip estimates provided by Uber and Lyft for the same routes 26. One user experienced a longer wait time for a Waymo ride but paid just under $20 for a trip from South Spring Street to Hobart Boulevard, which was comparable to other rideshare options 27. On the return trip, the same user paid about $20 for a Waymo, which was approximately $6 cheaper than Uber or Lyft for the same route 27.
An analytical formula for Los Angeles pricing estimates the cost as $5.37 plus $2.50 per mile plus $0.32 per minute 20. This formula indicates a higher per-mile cost in Los Angeles compared to Phoenix but a lower base fare than both San Francisco and Phoenix. The available data suggests that Waymo is positioning itself as a cost-competitive option in the Los Angeles market, with its fares generally falling within the same range as those of its main competitors.
3.4. Average Price per Ride Calculation:
Given the variability in Waymo’s pricing across different cities and even within the same city depending on various factors, arriving at a precise average price per ride is challenging. However, for the purpose of revenue projection, a reasonable estimate can be made by considering the available data points. The average fares reported in San Francisco tend to be higher than in Phoenix, with Los Angeles showing prices largely competitive with traditional ride-hailing.
To create a more representative average, it is important to consider the estimated number of rides in each city. Since Waymo’s operations have been established longer and are likely more extensive in Phoenix and San Francisco compared to the newer deployments in Los Angeles and the planned expansions, these cities should likely carry more weight in the calculation. Based on the provided data, a general average price per ride of $18 across all operational areas appears to be a reasonable assumption for the purpose of this projection. This figure takes into account the higher prices observed in San Francisco, the more competitive pricing in Phoenix and Los Angeles, and the likelihood that ride distances and durations will vary across all locations.
Table: Comparison of Waymo Pricing Formulas Across Cities
City | Base Fare | Per Mile Cost | Per Minute Cost | R-squared |
San Francisco | $9.52 | $1.66 | $0.30 | 0.85 |
Los Angeles | $5.37 | $2.50 | $0.32 | 0.96 |
Phoenix | $9.70 | $0.52 | $0.20 | 0.57 |
This table highlights the distinct pricing strategies employed by Waymo in its major operational areas. San Francisco exhibits a higher base fare and per-mile cost compared to Phoenix, while Los Angeles has the lowest base fare but the highest per-mile cost. These differences likely reflect varying market conditions, operational costs, and competitive landscapes in each city. The R-squared values indicate the goodness of fit of these linear models to the observed pricing data.
4. Projecting Weekly Ride Growth for 2025:
Forecasting Waymo’s weekly ride growth for 2025 requires considering its current momentum, ambitious expansion plans, and the scaling of its fleet.
4.1. Current Momentum and Expansion Plans:
Starting with a strong base of over 200,000 weekly rides in early 2025, Waymo is poised for significant growth throughout the year. A key driver of this growth will be the planned expansion into new metropolitan areas. The company intends to launch commercial services in Austin, Atlanta, and Miami 2. These expansions will significantly increase Waymo’s potential rider base and contribute to a higher overall ride volume. Furthermore, Waymo is actively testing its autonomous vehicles in over 10 new cities in 2025 6. While not all of these tests will immediately translate into commercial deployments, successful trials in cities like Las Vegas and San Diego could lead to further service launches within the year.
Strategic partnerships are also expected to play a crucial role in Waymo’s growth in 2025. The expanded collaboration with Uber in Austin and Atlanta will allow Waymo to leverage Uber’s established user base and operational infrastructure to reach more riders in these new markets 29. Additionally, the partnership with Moove, a mobility solutions provider, will commence in Phoenix in 2025, focusing on managing and dispatching Waymo’s fully autonomous, all-electric fleet 3. This partnership aims to enhance operational efficiency and facilitate faster and more cost-effective scaling of Waymo’s services. The combination of organic expansion into new cities and strategic alliances positions Waymo for substantial growth in its weekly ride numbers throughout 2025.
4.2. Fleet Size and Vehicle Procurement:
To support the projected increase in ride volume, a significant expansion of Waymo’s autonomous vehicle fleet is essential. The company has already placed an order for up to 20,000 Jaguar I-Pace electric SUVs 1. These vehicles are currently being utilized in Waymo’s operational cities and will likely form a significant portion of the fleet expansion in 2025. While information regarding the planned addition of up to 62,000 Pacifica Hybrid minivans dates back to 2018 1, it indicates Waymo’s historical commitment to large-scale fleet procurement. More recently, Waymo has established a partnership with Hyundai to integrate its autonomous technology into Hyundai’s all-electric IONIQ 5 SUVs 29. Initial on-road testing with these vehicles is scheduled to begin by late 2025, suggesting that the IONIQ 5 could start contributing to Waymo’s ride volume in the latter part of the year or in 2026.
Furthermore, there are indications of potential collaboration with Zeekr, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer 30. While the specifics of this collaboration are still emerging, the use of Zeekr vehicles could provide Waymo with another avenue for expanding its fleet and meeting the growing demand for its services. The proactive approach to securing vehicles through partnerships with multiple manufacturers underscores Waymo’s commitment to scaling its fleet in line with its ambitious expansion plans. A larger and more diverse fleet will be crucial for handling the anticipated increase in weekly rides in 2025.
4.3. Growth Rate Scenarios:
Considering the current momentum and the planned expansions, several growth scenarios can be envisioned for Waymo’s weekly ride numbers in 2025.
- Conservative Scenario: Assuming a more gradual ramp-up in new cities and a moderate increase in existing markets, Waymo might see its weekly rides reach around 300,000 by the end of 2025.
- Moderate Scenario: Factoring in successful launches in Austin, Atlanta, and Miami, along with continued growth in existing markets, a more likely scenario would see weekly rides averaging around 400,000 by the end of 2025. This aligns with some projections suggesting that Waymo could reach 600,000 weekly rides with its existing Jaguar fleet by the end of the year 30.
- Aggressive Scenario: If Waymo experiences a rapid adoption rate in its new markets and achieves significant scaling in its existing operations, it could potentially reach 1 million weekly rides by Christmas 2025, as suggested by some analysts 30.
One analyst predicts a substantial 109% year-over-year revenue growth for Waymo in 2025 38. While this is a revenue projection, it implies a significant increase in the underlying ride volume. Given the current weekly ride numbers and the expansion plans, the moderate scenario of averaging around 400,000 weekly rides by the end of 2025 appears to be a reasonable central estimate for revenue projection purposes.
5. Potential Revenue Calculation for 2025:
To calculate the potential revenue for 2025, we will use the estimated average weekly rides from the moderate growth scenario (400,000) and the estimated average revenue per ride ($18). Assuming 52 operational weeks in the year, the projected annual revenue for 2025 would be:
Projected Revenue (2025) = Average Weekly Rides × Average Revenue Per Ride × Operational Weeks
Projected Revenue (2025) = 400,000 × $18 × 52
Projected Revenue (2025) = $374,400,000
Therefore, based on the moderate growth scenario, Waymo has the potential to generate approximately $374.4 million in revenue in 2025. It is important to note that this figure could be higher or lower depending on the actual growth rate of weekly rides and the realized average revenue per ride. In a conservative scenario with 300,000 average weekly rides, the projected revenue would be $280.8 million. In an aggressive scenario with 1 million average weekly rides, the projected revenue would be $936 million.
6. Projecting Weekly Ride Growth for 2026:
Looking ahead to 2026, Waymo is expected to continue its expansion and scaling efforts, which will likely lead to further significant growth in its weekly ride numbers.
6.1. Continued Expansion and Scaling:
Waymo’s plans for 2026 include the launch of its autonomous ride-hailing service in Tokyo, marking its first international foray 2. This expansion into a major global city with a high population density presents a significant opportunity for ride volume growth. Additionally, passenger service in Miami is slated to launch in 2026, further expanding Waymo’s presence in the US market 3. The cities launched in 2025 (Austin, Atlanta, and potentially others from the testing program) are also expected to see continued scaling of operations throughout 2026, leading to increased ride volumes.
Analysts predict that by the end of 2026, Waymo will be operating in 75% of the 17 largest US cities (those with a population of 750,000 or more) 28. This indicates a substantial increase in Waymo’s geographical coverage and potential rider base. Some projections suggest that Waymo could reach 1 million weekly rides by the end of 2026 30. This ambitious target reflects the expectation of rapid scaling in both existing and new markets. The continued emphasis on expansion and increasing service capacity points towards another year of strong growth in Waymo’s weekly ride numbers.
6.2. Fleet Growth and New Vehicle Integrations:
To support the anticipated increase in ride volume in 2026, Waymo will need to continue expanding its autonomous vehicle fleet. The delivery of more Jaguar I-Pace vehicles is expected to continue 1. Furthermore, the integration of Hyundai IONIQ 5s into the Waymo One fleet, with on-road testing commencing in late 2025, is likely to have a more significant impact on fleet size in 2026 as production and deployment scale up 29. The partnership with Moove for fleet operations, which begins in Phoenix in 2025 and expands to Miami in 2026, will also contribute to more efficient management and utilization of Waymo’s vehicles 3. A larger and more efficient fleet will be crucial for meeting the growing demand for Waymo’s services in its expanding operational areas.
6.3. Market Adoption and Competition:
The overall autonomous vehicle market is projected to experience significant growth in 2026 39. This increasing acceptance of autonomous technology will likely benefit Waymo as it expands its services. Waymo is already demonstrating its ability to gain market share in key markets like San Francisco, where it reportedly holds 22% of the taxi journey market and now exceeds human-driver taxi company Lyft 32. This indicates a strong consumer preference for Waymo’s service.
However, the competitive landscape is also intensifying. Companies like Tesla, Cruise, and Zoox are actively developing and deploying their own autonomous vehicle technologies 37. While Waymo currently holds a leading position in the robotaxi market 37, the increasing competition could impact its growth trajectory and market share in the long term. Nevertheless, the current trends suggest that the increasing market adoption of autonomous vehicles and Waymo’s demonstrated ability to attract riders will contribute to continued strong growth in its weekly ride numbers in 2026.
6.4. Growth Rate Scenarios for 2026:
Based on the planned expansions, fleet growth, and market trends, the following growth scenarios can be considered for Waymo’s weekly ride numbers in 2026:
- Conservative Scenario: Assuming a more moderate pace of scaling in new markets and some impact from increased competition, Waymo might see its weekly rides reach around 600,000 by the end of 2026.
- Moderate Scenario: Factoring in successful launches in Tokyo and Miami, along with continued strong growth in the cities launched in 2025 and existing markets, a more likely scenario would see weekly rides averaging around 800,000 by the end of 2026. This aligns with the expectation of reaching 1 million weekly rides by year-end.
- Aggressive Scenario: If Waymo experiences exceptional adoption rates in its new international and domestic markets and achieves rapid scaling across its entire operational footprint, it could potentially exceed 1 million weekly rides on average throughout 2026.
For revenue projection purposes, the moderate scenario of averaging around 800,000 weekly rides by the end of 2026 appears to be a reasonable central estimate.
7. Potential Revenue Calculation for 2026:
Using the estimated average weekly rides from the moderate growth scenario for 2026 (800,000) and the estimated average revenue per ride ($18), and assuming 52 operational weeks in the year, the projected annual revenue for 2026 would be:
Projected Revenue (2026) = Average Weekly Rides × Average Revenue Per Ride × Operational Weeks
Projected Revenue (2026) = 800,000 × $18 × 52
Projected Revenue (2026) = $748,800,000
Therefore, based on the moderate growth scenario, Waymo has the potential to generate approximately $748.8 million in revenue in 2026. As with the 2025 projection, this figure could vary depending on the actual growth rate and average revenue per ride. In a conservative scenario with 600,000 average weekly rides, the projected revenue would be $561.6 million. In an aggressive scenario with 1 million average weekly rides, the projected revenue would be $936 million.
8. Key Factors and Assumptions Influencing Revenue Projections:
The revenue projections presented in this report are subject to several key factors and assumptions that could significantly influence the actual outcomes:
- Pace of City Expansions: The timeline and success of Waymo’s planned launches in new cities, including Austin, Atlanta, Miami, and Tokyo, will directly impact the growth of its rider base and ride volume. Delays or faster-than-anticipated launches could shift the revenue projections.
- Success of Partnerships: The effectiveness of Waymo’s collaborations with Uber and Moove in facilitating expansion and operational efficiency will be crucial. The anticipated benefits of these partnerships in terms of rider acquisition and fleet management need to materialize for the projections to hold.
- Fleet Scaling: Waymo’s ability to procure and deploy a sufficient number of autonomous vehicles to meet the growing demand in its expanding service areas is a critical factor. Delays in vehicle deliveries or production could constrain ride volume growth.
- Average Price per Ride: Any changes in Waymo’s pricing strategy or shifts in market conditions affecting the average fare charged per ride will directly impact revenue. Increased competition could put downward pressure on prices, while strong demand or premium features could allow for higher fares.
- Competitive Pressures: The actions and advancements of competitors like Tesla, Cruise, and Zoox in the autonomous vehicle market could influence Waymo’s market share and pricing power. Increased competition might lead to slower growth or the need for more aggressive pricing.
- Regulatory Changes: The evolving regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles could pose both opportunities and challenges for Waymo. Favorable regulations could accelerate deployment, while restrictive policies could hinder growth.
- Technological Advancements: Progress in Waymo’s autonomous driving technology and the reliability of its systems will be essential for maintaining rider trust and attracting new users. Any significant technological setbacks could negatively impact adoption rates.
- Economic Conditions: Overall economic factors, such as consumer confidence and disposable income, could influence the demand for ride-hailing services, including autonomous options like Waymo.
- Public Perception and Adoption Rates: The speed at which the general public embraces and trusts autonomous vehicle technology will be a key determinant of Waymo’s growth. Positive public perception and increasing adoption rates are crucial for achieving the projected ride volumes.
Given these factors and assumptions, the revenue projections should be viewed as estimates based on the currently available information and anticipated trends. Actual revenue figures could deviate from these projections depending on how these influencing factors evolve over the next two years.
9. Conclusion and Future Outlook:
The analysis indicates a strong potential for revenue growth for Waymo in both 2025 and 2026. Based on the moderate growth scenarios, Waymo is projected to generate approximately $374.4 million in revenue in 2025 and $748.8 million in 2026. These projections are driven by Waymo’s continued expansion into new cities, the scaling of its autonomous vehicle fleet, and the increasing adoption of its ride-hailing service. The partnerships with Uber and Moove are expected to play a significant role in facilitating this growth.
Waymo’s technological lead in the autonomous vehicle market, coupled with its strategic expansion plans and growing market share in key cities like San Francisco, positions it as a major contender in the evolving transportation landscape. The planned international launch in Tokyo further underscores its global ambitions. However, Waymo will need to navigate increasing competition from other autonomous vehicle developers and adapt to the evolving regulatory environment. The actual revenue generated will also depend on maintaining a competitive average price per ride and the pace at which public perception and adoption of autonomous vehicle technology continue to grow. Overall, the future outlook for Waymo’s revenue appears promising, with the potential for substantial growth as the autonomous vehicle market matures and Waymo continues to execute its expansion strategy.
Table: Projected Revenue for Waymo in 2025 and 2026 (Summary)
Year | Projected Annual Revenue (Moderate Scenario) |
2025 | $374.4 Million |
2026 | $748.8 Million |
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