Financial crises are often spoken of in the past tense, like historical cataclysms or “black swan” events that arrive without warning. But what if they aren’t? What if, instead of random bolts from the blue, they are the predictable final act of a long, slow, and observable process? The economists Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger…
The Federal Reserve is in the midst of one of the most significant monetary policy operations in its history: the great unwinding of its multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet. This process, known as Quantitative Tightening (QT), is the reversal of the massive bond-buying programs (Quantitative Easing, or QE) that supported the economy through the 2008 financial crisis…
Between mid-2023 and early 2025, a staggering ~$2.5 trillion quietly vanished from a key Federal Reserve facility. This cash hoard, held in the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (ON RRP) facility, had ballooned after the pandemic, serving as a parking lot for money market funds (MMFs) awash in liquidity. Its rapid decline sparked fears of…
Gold has been on a historic run, smashing records and leaving many investors wondering: Is it time to add some shine to my portfolio? For centuries, gold has been the go-to asset in times of trouble. When markets panic, the old wisdom says to buy gold. But does that wisdom still hold true? The answer is…
For decades, Wall Street traders have watched one indicator above all others to predict economic downturns: the inverted yield curve. When short-term Treasury rates climb above long-term rates, investors brace for recession. But after the longest inversion in recent history failed to produce the recession it promised, a critical question emerges: has this legendary signal…
For years, investors and market watchers relied on a simple rule of thumb: when US Treasury yields rise, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen. It makes intuitive sense – higher returns attract foreign capital, increasing demand for dollars. As the chart below illustrates, this relationship held reasonably well through 2023 and 2024. However, recent…
As we navigate the economic landscape in late 2024, a key area of focus for investors is the U.S. Treasury bond market are long-term securities. With increasing concerns about the federal deficit and its implications on interest rates, this article discuss key points about the factors influencing bond rates and the potential strategies employed by…
Background: What to Expect When Rates Start Declining When the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, investors often scramble to position their portfolios optimally. This post examines the historical performance of three key assets during rate-cutting cycles: the S&P 500 (SPY), Utilities Sector (XLU), and Long-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT). Understanding these patterns can provide valuable…
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, the relationship between interest rates and sector performance is a crucial aspect for investors to consider. Today, we’ll explore how potential short-term yield cuts might influence the utility sector’s performance. Understanding Short-Term Yield Cuts Before diving into the specifics, let’s clarify what we mean by short-term yield cuts:…
The Federal Reserve’s influence on the yield curve is both powerful and complicated, with different parts of the curve responding differently to monetary policy actions. While the Fed has strong control over short-term rates, its influence diminishes across longer maturities, creating an intricate dynamic that shapes the entire yield curve. The Fed’s Direct Control: The…